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Viewing Category: Election Process
Tuesday Is the End, Unless It’s the BeginningThis week, more than any other of the 2008 Democratic campaign, has acquired an air of decisiveness.Permalink [Category: Election Process]That is because four primary contests on Tuesday could extinguish Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s hope of overtaking Senator Barack Obama. After 11 consecutive losses, she trails badly in Vermont, runs even or slightly behind in Texas, and leads in Ohio and Rhode Island.
Yet the hinge could still swing either way. If Mrs. Clinton carries the behemoths of Ohio and Texas — despite her opponent’s momentum and financial advantage — Mr. Obama may rue this week as both an end and a beginning.
Clinton and Obama swing the spotlight to OhioThe Democratic presidential candidates campaign across Ohio in advance of Tuesday's primary.
Permalink [Category: Election Process] Pieces of Texas Turn Primary Into a PuzzleCRAWFORD, Tex. — When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton issued her gunslinger’s invitation to Senator Barack Obama recently, challenging him to “meet me in Texas,” the question many people here asked was, Which one?The frontier-conservative Texas of Amarillo, in the Panhandle, where former President Bill Clinton stumped for his wife this month, sharing the civic center with the annual gun show? The vast, immigrant-heavy Texas of Houston, where more than 100 languages are spoken in the city’s schools?
Maybe the one of East Texas, with its Deep South ethos, a region one Democratic consultant described as being more like Mississippi than Texas? Or the profoundly unpredictable one found here, in the central part of the state, among the most heavily Republican areas in the country (and home to President Bush’s ranch), yet represented in Congress by Chet Edwards, a well-liked Democrat who recently endorsed Mr. Obama?
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Democrats Vote in Wisconsin and HawaiiCHICAGO -- Democrats in Wisconsin and Hawaii had their say Tuesday in a hard-fought presidential campaign that has grown increasingly negative with charges of broken promises, plagiarism and petty partisanship.Permalink [Category: Election Process]Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York criticized each other as they looked to break out of a tight race, fearing the prospect that neither one will secure the nomination before the convention this summer.
They entered Tuesday's contests closely divided in the hunt for the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination: 1,281 for Obama and 1,218 for Clinton.
The day's biggest prize was Wisconsin, where 74 delegates were up for grabs and polls showed the two in a statistical dead heat. Neither candidate made the long trip to campaign in Hawaii, where 20 delegates were to be decided by a caucus.
The Charisma MandateThe “cult of personality” is used in the pejorative. But recast as a different name — call it charisma — and, as Roosevelt and other examples show, it can be a critical element of politics and its practical cousin, governance. It just can’t be the only element.Permalink [Category: Election Process]“Today, attacks on the cult of personality seem really to mean attacks on the ability to make speeches that inspire,” Mr. Caro said in an interview. “But you only have to look at crucial moments in the history of our time to see how crucial it was to have a leader who could inspire, who could rally a nation to a standard, who could infuse a country with confidence, to remind people of the justice of a cause.”
Still, Mr. Caro adds a caveat: “That doesn’t always translate into a great presidency.”
Obama Seeks Beltway Boost, While Clinton Looks to the Middle DistanceFor a day, at least, Washington insiders are constituents, not just foils. And they're just the beginning of who's being targeted when the presidential race makes its way through the capital region -- from the Beltway to far beyond -- on Tuesday.Voters in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia give Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., a chance to extend his winning streak, after a weekend sweep that followed a battle to a practical tie with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., on Super Tuesday.
As Obama looks to pick up delegates and extend his appeal across disparate demographic groups, Clinton is hoping to slow Obama's growing momentum -- even while she looks down the road. As polls close back east, she campaigns in El Paso, Texas, on Tuesday -- another sign that she's all-but ceding the remainder of the February contests to build a final firewall on March 4, when Texas and Ohio weigh in.
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8 Questions the Potomac Primary Could Answer1) Will a Sweep by Obama Make Him the Front-Runner?Permalink [Category: Election Process]Victories in Maryland, Virginia and the District would give Barack Obama a narrow but undisputed lead among pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Together with the rest of his recent string of victories, such a sweep would bestow unmistakable momentum heading toward next week's primary in Wisconsin and caucus in Hawaii.
That kind of success normally would be enough to crown someone a front-runner, but in this case, it would make Obama, as Democratic pollster Mark Mellman put it, "a front-runner by inches in a tied race." In this race at least, as Democratic strategist Don Fowler noted, "front-runner does not mean winner."
The Early Word: Another Primary DayFew can agree on which catchy name to call today’s three primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, but election fever certainly has caught on with the local electorate.Permalink [Category: Election Process]High voter turnout is expected in each case, despite reports of snow and wintry mix (a popular forecast around here). The Washington Post reports that interest is high because “the Democratic race is tight and historic, and many Republican voters say the direction of their party is at stake.”
Youth enthusiastic for voice in primaryYoung voters in the region are eager to cast ballots in the primary today, saying they are excited about the Democratic presidential candidates and participating in a meaningful election.Permalink [Category: Election Process]"Not enough young people vote," said Michelle Poisson, a 19-year-old student at Bowie State University who will vote for the first time today. "I think our choices can make a difference this time."
The remaining candidates in the still-competitive presidential primaries — Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, and Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democrats — began stumping at area universities even before the conclusion of the Super Tuesday primaries last week. Mr. Obama, of Illinois, received the endorsement of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Massachusetts Democrat, during a huge rally at American University.
Biggest winner so far: voter turnoutThe presidential primary season has not yet confirmed a nominee in either major party, but it has already notched a different political accomplishment: It has driven more people to participate in the process.Permalink [Category: Election Process]More people have registered to vote, and many states have reported record voter turnout in the primary contests and caucuses so far.
Though there are signs that Democrats are gaining most from these developments, much can happen between now and November, and whom the party settles on as its nominee could make a significant difference.
The shift in party registration has been measurable in early-voting states like Nevada, where the number of registered Democrats crept ahead of registered Republicans in the weeks leading up to the Jan. 19 caucuses.
Razor-Thin Margins in Missouri Reflect Nationwide SplitIn all but one presidential general election in the past century, Missourians have chosen the candidate who won the presidency. But the state’s value as a compass of the nation’s political mood extends beyond general elections because its population’s makeup (rich and poor, urban and rural, agricultural and industrial) tends to look like a microcosm of the country.That compass on Wednesday seemed to be indicating, quite powerfully, that Americans remain starkly divided about who the nominees for president, both Democratic and Republican, should be.
“What you see really is a dead heat here, and as Missouri goes, so goes the nation,” said Kenneth Warren, a political scientist at St. Louis University, reflecting on the results of the state’s primaries on Tuesday.
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California's moment in the spotlight is probably overWith a hardening of the state's Democratic tilt, neither major party's nominee is likely to focus much energy on the state, although McCain might pursue independents.
Hope you enjoyed the party, because you may not be invited back in November.Permalink [Category: Election Process]The upshot of the most hotly contested California primary since bell-bottoms were in -- the first time -- was a hardening of the state's Democratic tilt and a proportionate drop in Republican support here.
Add in the ability of independent voters to cast ballots in the Democratic primary Tuesday -- allowed by party leaders who believe those voters will stay loyal in November. With all that, it is at best questionable whether California will be a contested state in the general election.
Open-Field PoliticsThirty-five days ago, as the voting in the Iowa caucuses was about to begin, those of us in the political commentary business thought the candidates of both parties would have been determined by yesterday, the day after Super Tuesday. Not so.Permalink [Category: Election Process]John McCain is well ahead in the delegate count thanks to the Republican preference for winner-take-all contests -- and to his own good luck in narrowly winning rather than narrowly losing Missouri's 58 winner-take-all delegates. But he still faces determined challenges from rivals with claims on key party constituencies -- high earners (Mitt Romney) and evangelical Christians (Mike Huckabee).
Hillary Clinton apparently emerged from Super Tuesday with a narrow delegate lead over Barack Obama, because the Democrats tend to allocate delegates by proportional representation. She may not be able to win the nomination without margins from the unelected "superdelegates" (only the Democrats have these), or the usually unanimous delegation from Puerto Rico, which selects 63 delegates in a caucus in early June.
McCain in control, Dems dividedSen. John McCain tonight won the biggest Republican “Super Tuesday” states, but weak support from conservatives denied him a decisive victory, while Democrats Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton battled to an effective tie.Permalink [Category: Election Process, McCain, Super Tuesday]Mr. McCain won winner-take-all, delegate-rich states in the Northeast, but could not put away his two Republican rivals, former governors who received strong support in the West and South.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee pulled in five southern states and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won five western states.
A Less Hectic Schedule AheadWASHINGTON — Where to now?Permalink [Category: Election Process, Super Tuesday]With the coast-to-coast frenzy of Tuesday’s voting behind them, the candidates can now look forward to a comparatively relaxed primary and caucus schedule between now and the next big round of nominating contests, on March 4, when voters in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls.
The remaining major contenders face different calculations on spending, travel and advertising in the coming weeks as they try to assemble enough delegates to win their party’s nomination.
Diverging Paths for Two PartiesThe Republican and Democratic presidential contests began diverging Tuesday, leaving the Democrats facing a long and potentially divisive nomination battle and Republicans closer to an opportunity to put aside deep internal divisions and rally around a nominee.The differing situations for the Republicans and Democrats have clear implications for both parties as they begin to move from the nomination battle toward the general election.
On the Democratic side, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama seem likely to continue their state-by-state struggle, after a night of a tit-for-tat division of states and delegates. But after months of disarray, Republicans seemed closer to coalescing around Senator John McCain of Arizona.
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Trudging to a Super finishRepublican Mitt Romney yesterday dashed back to California, where he hoped to make one last stand against Sen. John McCain, poised to lock down the nomination by capturing hundreds of delegates in a slew of winner-take-all states.Permalink [Category: Election Process]Sen. Barack Obama stormed across Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's delegate-rich back yard, courting Northeast voters as the road-weary Democratic presidential campaigns prepared to carve up the electoral map on Super Tuesday.
Both Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney yesterday portrayed themselves as underdogs, and each predicted surprises in today's showdowns across more than 20 states.
In Democratic Families, Politics Makes for Estranged BedfellowsMaria Shriver woke up Sunday morning and decided to surprise the audience at a rally for Senator Barack Obama in Los Angeles, materializing alongside Oprah Winfrey and telling the crowd she was there because she sought “an America that’s about unity.”Permalink [Category: Election Process]But not the family kind. Ms. Shriver is a member of the Kennedy clan, and in the past week, her relatives have split over the Democratic race, publicizing their preferences on opinion pages and at campaign events.
With Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mr. Obama locked in a tight race before Tuesday’s voting, the campaign has turned into a gigantic family feud, with prominent and everyday Democrats splitting with spouses, siblings, parents and children. There is former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin (Clinton supporter) and his son James (Obama); Representative Charles B. Rangel (Clinton), his wife, Alma (Obama); the Rev. Jesse Jackson (Obama), his wife, Jacqueline (Clinton), and their sons (split).
McCain Looks Confident; Tighter Democratic RaceSenator John McCain, buoyed by new polls and endorsements, appeared in an increasingly commanding position on Sunday as he headed toward coast-to-coast contests that could effectively hand him the Republican presidential nomination, party officials said. In a display of confidence, Mr. McCain campaigned in the backyard of his chief rival, Mitt Romney.Permalink [Category: Election Process, Hillary Clinton, McCain, Obama, Romney]A sweep of big states by Mr. McCain on Tuesday would reward him with a trove of delegates and could bring the Republican contest to a quick end. That would amount to a remarkable comeback for a campaign that had appeared expired just six months ago.
On the Democratic side, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were enmeshed in a tough national fight, illustrated by polls showing the race had tightened both nationally and in key states voting on Tuesday where Mrs. Clinton had once enjoyed a comfortable lead. They include California, Missouri, New Jersey and Arizona.
Campaigning Is Furious on Final Weekend Before Big VoteBOISE, Idaho — The presidential campaign played to new audiences on Saturday as the leading Democratic and Republican candidates fanned out across the nation to make swift appeals to voters in delegate-rich or politically symbolic states.Senator Barack Obama spoke to a crowd of more than 10,000 people at Boise State University on Saturday.
On the final weekend before Americans in more than 20 states will cast their votes, the presidential nominating fight carried an intensity normally reserved for the closing days of a general election campaign. The outcome of the elections on Tuesday, particularly for Republicans, is likely to bring some clarity to the yearlong nominating battle.“This is the most consequential election in a generation,” Mr. Obama said, drawing thundering applause from thousands of impassioned Democrats and curious Republicans.
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'Tsunami Tuesday' gets downgraded as finish lineWASHINGTON - For months, the presidential candidates have looked at Feb. 5, when more than 20 states cast their votes, as the decisive date in the primaries. Surely this "Tsunami Tuesday," as some call it, would crown the two nominees.Permalink [Category: Election Process]But as the big day approaches, the campaigns are facing the possibility that voters on Tuesday will not settle the matter after all.
That is more likely in the Democratic Party, where Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are mounting strong campaigns. On the Republican side, John McCain has emerged as the clear favorite heading toward Feb. 5, but Mitt Romney is mounting a fierce last-ditch effort.
End or Just Beginning on Super Tuesday?As ABC News prepares to broadcast five hours of live coverage on Feb. 5th, it feels as if the entire primary season should be drawing to a close.Permalink [Category: Election Process]But while John McCain might be close to wrapping up the G.O.P. nomination, the Democratic race is poised to stretch well beyond Super Tuesday.
The Note: Friendly FireThe Clinton and Obama camps are girding for a fight that will stretch at least until March 4, when Ohio and Texas vote, and perhaps until April 22 when Pennsylvania votes.
Super Tuesday Sprint: 72 Hours To GoWith 72 hours to go before Super Tuesday, and with some two dozen states at play, the candidates are hop-scotching the country this weekend, trying to scoop up delegates like pebbles.Permalink [Category: Election Process]
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