Of course, no one knows what the political environment will be in 29 months, but the 2010 Census is certain to change the Electoral College math in a way that will favor the Republicans. Should the president roll up the popular vote majority that he did in 2008, the new scorecard for 2012 won’t make a difference come Election Day.
August 22, 2010
August 17, 2010
Five governor’s races could indicate GOP success in 2012
That swath of manufacturing- based states in the Midwest — Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan — with tentacles that reach as far east as Pennsylvania, has been the epicenter of the economic difficulties in the country over the past few years.
Each state is hosting a competitive gubernatorial race this fall. Republicans argue that a clean sweep (or close to it) would immediately change the electoral calculus heading into the nationwide redistricting in 2011 and President Obama‘s reelection race in 2012.
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- Karl Rove: Will the GOP Storm the Statehouses? (online.wsj.com)
- Political Wisdom: On the Road to 2012 (blogs.wsj.com)
Sarah Palin Endorsements Stir 2012 Election Talk
…In choosing Branstad, Palin skipped over businessman Bob Vander Plaats, a tea party favorite, in favor of a former governor with a strong chance of returning to office – and wielding political power when the Iowa presidential caucuses roll around.
“She’s playing her cards, and trying to set herself up” for making a push, should she run, said Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire who is watching to see who, or whether, Palin endorses in his state.
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- Branstad pushing GOP presidential hopefuls to stump for Iowa candidates (gazetteonline.com)
August 13, 2010
Sarah Palin vs. Bill Clinton: Whose endorsement means more?
Sarah Palin-endorsed candidates went three-for-four Tuesday night. But Bill Clinton helped Sen. Blanche Lincoln pull off a stunner. Just how much of an impact do their endorsements have?
GOP 2012 Rankings
…it’s really getting to be candidate-spotting time up in New Hampshire. Republicans there are hoping to win the open US Senate seat, the two open US House seats, and enough legislative seats to regain both state chambers. That means there are lots of candidates, and party committees, who would appreciate fundraising assistance from celebrity pols — and who might later express their appreciation by helping in a Presidential campaign.
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- GOP cautiously confident of big gains this fall (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
California Vote to Radically Alter Primaries Could Have Huge Impact
As it has done so often in the past, California used its century old direct-democracy tool to enact a radical change in its election process. By passing Proposition 14, Californians have effectively abolished party primaries.
Starting next year, candidates running for the state legislature, the U.S. Congress, or statewide offices will compete in a non-partisan “Jungle primary.” Whether Republican or Democrat, Libertarian or Green Party or Tea Party, everyone’s in the same contest, and only the top-two vote-getters will compete in November.
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March 30, 2010
2012 Looks No Better For Democrats
- Image via Wikipedia
Senate Democrats are no doubt bracing for sizeable losses in the fall elections, but an early look at 2012 map shows a rebound for the party could be difficult next cycle, when President Barack Obama will be at the top of the ticket.
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March 28, 2010
Is US politics nastier than ever?
US President Barack Obama has given his angriest speech since he was elected while a debate rages over his healthcare reforms. Mark Mardell considers whether America really is more divided than ever.
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2012 Election: The Republican Party’s California Problem
If Republicans are to defeat Obama in the 2012 election, which they probably think is increasingly possible, they are going to have to contend with a couple of historical issues. The first problem is that incumbent presidents do not generally lose close elections.
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Presidential 2012 Race Heats Up
Since when are GOP Frontrunners for the 2012 Presidential Race considered to be top-rated guests on left-leaning late night shows? Apparently this occurs when the nation is turning on its heels to the right.